The U.S. stock market is bracing for what BlackRock calls “another year of flip-flopping market narratives.” The recent decline in inflation could easily reverse course and catch investors off guard, threatening the prospect of a smooth landing, says the investment giant.
Macro risks are a cause for concern, as suggested by market jitters in early January, according to BlackRock Investment Institute strategists. However, they remain selective in their approach and anticipate a resurgence of inflation on the horizon.
Additionally, the strategists draw attention to the pricey valuations in the U.S. stock market. There is a small group of seven megacap stocks that have captured favor due to their ability to leverage artificial intelligence. These stocks boast price-to-earnings ratios for the next 12 months that are approximately a third higher than those of the broader S&P 500 index.
The second half of 2023 witnessed a decline in price-to-earnings ratios. Stronger earnings expectations played a vital role in supporting the megacap rally. Consequently, the seven tech giants, often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven,” experienced skyrocketing performance, contributing to the impressive 24% surge in the S&P 500 index.
However, even after the December market-wide rally, market concentration remains high within these megacaps. Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. (META), and Tesla Inc. (TSLA) hold massive market values and accordingly exert significant influence on the S&P 500 index’s performance.
Nvidia Outperforms S&P 500 Amidst Market Declines
Chip maker Nvidia has emerged as one of the top-performing stocks in the S&P 500, recording a significant gain of 2.7% in afternoon trading on Tuesday. In contrast, the broader S&P 500 index was down 0.7% during the same period, along with declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite.
Potential Catalysts for Market Sentiment
BlackRock strategists have highlighted the significance of catalysts in shaping market sentiment. While valuations are typically considered more relevant for long-term rather than near-term stock returns, they alone may not be enough to impact market sentiment without a trigger. According to the strategists, potential catalysts include earnings and inflation.
Last year witnessed a rise in consensus expectations for earnings growth, with forecasts now projecting an increase of up to 11% over the next 12 months, as per LSEG data.
As for inflation, BlackRock anticipates a decrease this year, eventually reaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This soft-landing scenario, embraced by both the stock market and the Fed, may allow the U.S. to avoid a recession if inflation remains at the desired target.
However, the strategists caution that inflation is unlikely to remain at this target, posing potential challenges to the optimistic sentiment prevailing in the market. Thus, closely monitoring the earnings season for signs of vulnerability in light of expensive valuations becomes crucial.
In conclusion, while Nvidia continues its upward trajectory in a market that grapples with declines, it is imperative for investors and market participants to assess potential catalysts that could impact sentiment and overall market performance.