The bull market in U.S. stocks is in need of a shake-up, according to Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group.
Market Movement
Stocks took a dip on Monday following record highs reached on Friday by the S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP. However, Papic believes that for the bull market to keep thriving, there needs to be some negative economic news to drive it forward.
Embracing the Bad News
Papic shared in a note to clients that their perspective remains aligned with the idea that “bad news is good news.” They see a slowdown in economic data as beneficial for the market’s momentum.
Impact of Weaker Data
If weaker economic data comes to light, it would validate the Federal Reserve’s shift in direction since December, leading to lower long-term borrowing costs and a decrease in real interest rates.
Future Outlook
Papic warned that without rate cuts, there could potentially be a rise in borrowing expenses, credit constraints, and a reduction in the cash reserves accumulated during the pandemic era, impacting consumer spending down the line.
Market Analysis in the Face of Potential Recession
In light of the current economic landscape, a counterweight has been proposed based on relatively low household debt-to-income ratios. Additionally, the Federal Reserve maintains ample room to adjust its policy rate, currently at a 22-year high of 5.25%, with the potential to lower it to the 5.5% range.
Key Considerations for Investors
Given this context, investors are prompted to contemplate the extent to which equities could decline during a recession, considering the considerable margin of 525 basis points available for the Fed to cut.
While a temporary setback in stocks may be imminent, there is a greater concern highlighted by Papic regarding the resurgence of bond yields, particularly in light of the enduring strength of the U.S. economy.
Market Performance Indicators
The 10-year Treasury yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) experienced a modest increase of 3 basis points on Monday, resting at 4.22%. This figure still stands below the peak of 5% observed in October, coinciding with a decline in stock values.
As noted by Isabel Wang, the S&P 500 has achieved an approximately 21.5% growth since October 2023, reminiscent of significant surges witnessed during the dot-com bubble era and post-World War II recessions.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Amidst these developments, investors are advised to consider seeking refuge in growth-sensitive sectors such as energy. However, given that technology accounts for 30% of the S&P 500, a downturn in equities seems inevitable if the economy continues to operate against conventional expectations.
For further insights into evolving market trends, consider exploring additional resources such as upcoming stock indexes that are on course to set records.
—Isabel Wang contributed