The U.S. dollar is off to a strong start in 2024, bouncing back after a challenging period that left the currency oversold at the end of last year, as per analysts.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has surged by 0.7% to reach 102.3 on Friday, marking its best performance during the first four days of a year since 2015 when it climbed by 1.9%.
Furthermore, the index is set to record its largest weekly gain since November 10.
Disappointing Performance in 2023
This significant gain follows a disappointing year for the greenback, which experienced a decline in late 2023 after the Federal Reserve projected three interest rate cuts for the following year, and investors anticipated even more. Lower interest rates tend to decrease the appeal of currencies to international investors in the global currency market.
In 2022, the index had recorded a rise of 7.9%, but in contrast, it fell by 2.1% in the previous year. FactSet data reveals that it briefly reached its highest level in over two decades in September, trading above 114.
Top Five Best First Four Days for the U.S. Dollar
Currency market observers have put forward several theories to explain what is driving the dollar’s recent surge.
Rethinking Fed Interest Rate-Cut Expectations
Some credited investors are reassessing their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which far exceed the signals given by the central bank itself. The significant trades made in the fourth quarter of 2023 – being long on stocks and bonds while shorting the greenback – have now become overextended.
According to Steve Englander, Head of North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered, there are emerging questions regarding the speed at which the Fed is likely to move. He states, “The market started off 2024 with a short position on the US dollar and fixed income. Now, we are unwinding some of these positions.”
Minutes from the previous policy-committee meeting at the Fed, released earlier this week, revealed that senior officials are still anticipating interest rate cuts this year. However, they acknowledge that determining the timing of these cuts is more challenging, while also leaving room for further rate increases.
On Thursday, the dollar experienced a decline, trading down 0.1% at 102.3. This drop followed the release of a business conditions indicator, which illustrated a decrease in service-oriented companies in December, reaching a seven-month low. Interestingly, this decline in the dollar boosted risky assets like stocks.
In addition to this, the latest Labor Department report indicated the creation of over 200,000 jobs in the previous month. However, it also featured signs of weakening activity.
It is important for investors to reassess their expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts based on these recent developments.