Overview
According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are expected to see no change from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the Energy Department. This comes from the average of estimates from ten analysts and traders. Additionally, gasoline inventories are projected to rise by 300,000 barrels, while stocks of distillates are expected to decrease by 400,000 barrels.
U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles
The survey shows that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to remain virtually flat at around 416.3 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 29. Out of the ten forecasters, four predict a decrease while six anticipate an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.4 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories
Analysts suggest that gasoline inventories will see an increase of 300,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 1.6 million barrels to an increase of 2.6 million barrels.
Distillates Stocks
Stocks of distillates, which primarily include diesel fuel, are expected to decrease by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3.1 million barrels to an increase of 1.9 million barrels.
The closely watched inventory data from the DOE’s Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Refinery Use Forecast for the Week
Refinery use likely fell by 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, to 89.2%. Forecasts from industry analysts range from a decrease of 0.8 percentage points to an increase of 0.8 percentage points. Notably, two analysts didn’t provide a forecast for this week.
Industry Group Data
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, shared its data for the week, revealing the following:
- Crude Supplies: A significant decrease of 4.2 million barrels.
- Gasoline Stocks: A notable rise of 3.9 million barrels.
- Diesel Inventories: An increase of 349,000 barrels.
Analyst Forecasts
Here is a breakdown of the refinery use forecasts from various analysts:
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |—————————|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -1.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | -0.8 | | Commodity Research Group | 2.4 | 0.4 | 1.6 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Management | 1.5 | -1 | -1.5 | -0.5 | | DTN | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.2 | -0.3 | | Excel Futures | -2.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | -0.4 | | Spartan Capital Securities| 0.8 | -1.6 | 1.9 | n/f | | Mizuho | 2 | -1 | -1 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -1 | -2 | Unchanged | | Ritterbusch and Associates| 1.6 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.8 | | Tradition Energy | -2 | 2 | -3.1 | n/f | | AVERAGE | Unchanged | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.3 | n/f = no forecast; Unchanged = no change