U.S. stock futures are showing some softness in early Wednesday trading, although they remain close to levels that could represent a fresh record for the S&P 500 index. Here’s a quick look at how stock-index futures are performing:
S&P 500 Futures (ES00)
- Dip of 7 points, or 0.1%, to 4813
Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures (YM00)
- Fall of 26 points, or 0.1%, to 37905
Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ00)
- Ease of 47 points, or 0.3%, to 16976
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 252 points, or 0.68%, closing at 37558. The S&P 500 increased by 28 points, or 0.59%, reaching 4768. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 98 points, or 0.66%, totaling 15003.
The futures market indicates that the S&P 500 is on track to open shy of the record closing high of 4796.56 it achieved at the beginning of January 2022, by less than 1%.
This year, the Wall Street benchmark has seen a substantial increase of 24.2%. This growth is partly driven by optimism about the U.S. economy, which has not been severely impacted by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at cooling inflation.
According to a survey conducted by Bank of America, fund managers are currently the most optimistic about the stock market in almost two years.
The recent market rally is fueled by hopes that, with inflation now at 3.1%, the central bank will rapidly reduce borrowing costs in the coming year.
Despite the efforts of Fed officials to dampen market expectations for rate cuts, traders remain enthusiastic and the rally continues.
The Curious Case of “Hawkish” and “Dovish” Comments
It’s intriguing how investors seem to brush off hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve while eagerly embracing dovish commentaries. Senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, finds this phenomenon amazing. However, she warns that investors dreaming of aggressive rate cuts in the midst of a robust economic growth might be mistaking the recipe for easing inflation and maintaining low levels. In fact, the strong economic data and high earnings expectations are not in line with a dovish Fed.
The current bullishness in the market could also be influenced by seasonal trends. Optimism surrounding a festive bounce has been known to provide support to stocks during what is famously known as the “Santa Claus Rally” period. This period extends from the last five trading days of the year to the first two trading days of the new year, as mentioned in the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Historical data reinforces this notion, with the S&P 500 showing an average gain of 1.32% during this period since 1950. Impressively, it has closed higher 78.1% of the time over that span. Ken Jimenez, research manager at Dow Jones Market Data, highlights this noteworthy trend.
On Wednesday, there are several significant U.S. economic updates scheduled for release. At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, we will receive the current account for the third quarter. Subsequently, at 10 a.m., November’s existing home sales and December’s consumer confidence figures will be disclosed.
This rollercoaster ride between hawkish and dovish sentiments is definitely worth keeping an eye on as we move forward in these uncertain times.