Brewer Carlsberg is scheduled to unveil its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year on Wednesday. Here are the key details you need to know.

Sales Forecast

Analysts’ estimates indicate that Carlsberg’s sales for the full year should reach 70.34 billion Danish kroner ($10.18 billion). In 2022, the company achieved sales of DKK70.27 billion.

Operating-Profit Forecast

The Copenhagen-based group is expected to report earnings before interest, taxes, and special items of DKK11.28 billion. Although slightly lower than DKK11.47 billion in the previous year, Carlsberg aims for organic growth of 4%-7% in its operating profit. However, it anticipates a negative impact of approximately DKK900 million due to currency effects.

Carlsberg shares currently trade at DKK892.60, down from DKK977.60 a year ago.

What to Watch

Analysts at Citi suggest that sales growth in the last months of 2023 could disappoint. They predict slower recovery in China, potentially hindering organic revenue growth and causing a decline in volumes compared to the previous year. While macroeconomic headwinds in Southeast Asia may exacerbate weak production in China, favorable trends in India are expected to offset some of this setback, according to analysts at UBS.

Under the leadership of new Chief Executive Jacob Aarup-Andersen, Carlsberg may maintain modest expectations. Jefferies analysts note that the company is likely to guide for mid-single-digit organic operating-profit growth at best. This cautious stance reflects uncertainties concerning volume recovery in China and potential repercussions in other Southeast Asian markets due to China’s weak macroeconomic performance. Nonetheless, Jefferies highlights Carlsberg’s historical track record of meeting or exceeding its targets.

While muted guidance and weak performance in China could dampen investor sentiment, Citi suggests that over-delivering on the guidance and positive surprises in profitability could pave the way for potential share price growth.

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