Investors received a positive boost from Tuesday’s U.S. data, indicating that the number of people leaving their jobs in July has returned to pre-pandemic levels. This is a significant signal that the labor market is gradually returning to normalcy, according to analysts.
Financial markets have eagerly awaited signs of a return to pre-COVID conditions since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Finally, on Tuesday, a report revealed that the number of job quitters dropped to 3.5 million, reaching its lowest level in two and a half years. However, job openings remained higher than they were before the crisis. Quits have a strong correlation with wage growth, and a decline in this number typically reflects concerns about an economic downturn. It is important to consider the extreme distortions caused by the pandemic when analyzing data from 2020.
The market reacted swiftly to this news, with various asset prices experiencing changes on Tuesday. The 2-year Treasury yield (BX:TMUBMUSD02Y), which is tied to expectations for Federal Reserve policy, witnessed its largest one-day decline in over a month. Additionally, traders in Fed funds futures increased the likelihood of no further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. Consequently, the main interest-rate target is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5%. Furthermore, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks U.S. interest rate projections relative to the rest of the world, dropped by 0.5%.
In summary, investors are feeling optimistic as the U.S. labor market shows signs of recovery. The return to pre-pandemic conditions in terms of job quitters strengthens expectations for future economic growth.
Labor Market Softness Brings Good News for Equity Investors
In the midst of what might be considered bad news from the labor market, the three major U.S. stock indexes – DJIA, SPX, and COMP – saw an upward trend in New York afternoon trading on Tuesday. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, explains that many markets have been anticipating a softening in the labor market, which is currently happening. August’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to be softer than previous months, potentially signaling the beginning of a soft patch for the labor market.
Gillum further suggests that today’s report confirms the expectation of a soft landing for equity markets. Despite a 17% increase in the S&P 500 index this year, record highs are still possible if corporate earnings continue to remain strong. However, given the significant advancement already seen this year, sideways trading is also expected.
Interestingly, the Treasury market is experiencing lighter trading during the summer months leading up to the Labor Day weekend. This decrease in liquidity makes it challenging to gauge the sentiment of traders who may be reversing short positions, according to Gillum.
Looking ahead to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for August, economists predict a gain of 170,000 jobs, slightly lower than the previous month. Additionally, higher gasoline prices this month have the potential to impact the August consumer price index, which will be released on September 13th. As a result, the headline inflation rate may remain elevated compared to July’s 3.2% reading.
By Lauren Henderson, Economist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co.
The latest inflation data from July fails to consider the recent surge in energy prices, according to economist Lauren Henderson. She points out that the rate of disinflation has become slower recently, indicating that the Federal Reserve might need to implement an additional rate hike before the year’s end due to the persistent nature of inflation. Contrary to the market’s belief that the Fed is finished, Henderson disagrees, foreseeing further action.
Empowered by resilient consumers, the economy has exhibited greater strength than initially anticipated, as highlighted by Henderson during a phone interview. However, Tuesday’s data reveals a concerning trend: for two consecutive months, the number of people choosing to quit their jobs has regressed, approaching levels reminiscent of the pre-pandemic era. This development marks a positive step towards rebalancing the labor market.
Amidst this economic landscape, it becomes evident that understanding the impact of energy prices and closely monitoring labor market dynamics are crucial elements in comprehending and navigating the current state of affairs.