Both economists and investors are expecting the November jobs report to show a more positive outcome compared to October, thanks to the resolution of major strikes across the nation. However, this increase in employment is not expected to have any significant impact on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for next week.

According to economists surveyed by FactSet, the U.S. added 172,500 jobs in November. The range of projections varies widely: Morgan Stanley estimates that 200,000 jobs were added last month, while José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, estimates the figure to be around 140,000.

These estimates are higher than the 150,000 jobs recorded in October, although the October number may be subject to revisions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been revising recent job figures due to slower employer participation.

Assuming there are no surprises, it is not expected that Friday’s jobs report will significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for next Wednesday. The current probability of the Fed keeping its target rate at 5.25%–5.5% stands at 97.3% as of Thursday morning, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The majority of the increase in November’s payrolls is expected to be a result of the resolution of both the Hollywood actors’ strike and the United Auto Workers’ work stoppage. The SAG-AFTRA strikes involved 16,000 workers, while the UAW work stoppage affected 25,300 employees, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ strike activity report during the November pay period. However, the actual number of affected workers is likely to be higher due to the ripple effects of idle auto plants and stalled studio production.

Although the strikes were largely resolved by mid-November when the Bureau conducted its survey, full ratification of the labor contracts occurred after that period. This means that the effects of the strikes may spill over into the December jobs report as well.

The Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Cooling

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