The Republican-run U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on Wednesday for a bipartisan tax bill. The bill includes an expansion of the child tax credit as well as business breaks, particularly for research and development.

Progress Hindered but Now Back on Track

On Tuesday, several House Republicans demanded the inclusion of state and local tax relief in the deal, causing delays in the proceedings. However, it seems that the advancement of the $78 billion measure is now back on track.

The bill is scheduled to undergo a vote using a procedure called suspension of the rules. This procedure limits debate, prohibits amendments, and requires a two-thirds majority vote for passage.

Probabilities of Enactment

According to Benjamin Salisbury, the director of research at Height Capital Markets, there is currently a 55%-65% probability that Congress will enact the tax bill. In a note on Wednesday, he mentioned that if/when the bill passes the House, the odds would improve even further. However, passing the bill in the House is not guaranteed due to the 2/3 threshold which necessitates substantial support from both Republicans and Democrats.

SALT Fix Concerns Addressed

Salisbury also noted that Republicans advocating for a SALT fix (state and local tax relief) seem to have had their concerns addressed by commitments from the House’s leadership regarding future consideration of a separate measure.

See: Bipartisan deal could boost the child tax credit — but wouldn’t bring back the generous 2021 version. Here’s what it would mean for your taxes.

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